7 forces shaping energy markets in 2026, from AI to the weather

In the 2026 energy landscape, data centers will dominate power demand, batteries will bend the curve, and weather will prove the wildcard. 

Those were just a few of the key takeaways from Trio’s latest Risky Business videocast, which looked at what energy insiders believe will move energy markets around the world this year. 

For the conversation, Sanjin Lucic, Trio’s Director of Risk Management and Trading, was joined by three other energy experts from different corners of the globe, to discuss everything from AI to LNG, highlighting the major drivers and blind spots across markets, separating the signal from the noise for energy buyers.  

In sum, the panel identified seven critical factors that will define energy prices in 2026. 

AI is crushing the grid 

The panel discussed how, across regions, AI and data centers are driving massive new demand, and markets haven’t caught up. In Australia and much of Asia, forward curves are lagging the load outlook as pipelines of hyperscale and enterprise facilities expand. Derek Myers, CEO of Australian broker Energy Action, framed the challenge succinctly: “The upside price risk around data centers has not been priced into the forward curve yet.” 

Speaking from Bangkok, Jeremy Wilcox, Managing Director of Commodity Management Services, said he expected Asia‑Pacific to account for a massive 80% of the world’s power growth this decade, as electrification and decarbonization compound the data‑center buildout. Governments may blunt tariffs, but grids and interconnections will need years — and capital — to catch up. 

Coal isn’t going quietly 

With reliability being repriced, legacy thermal power is getting a stay of execution. Jeff Bolyard, Trio’s Principal of Energy Supply Advisory, noted that the U.S. has moved to extend roughly a dozen coal plants, citing concern that firm demand from data centers will outpace available 24/7 supply. Australia is following a similar pattern, reversing a major slated closure to retain capacity headroom. The moves severely endanger net‑zero timelines, but the operational logic is plain: keep the lights on while new firm power, in the form of storage, transmission and peaker plants, scales. 

Batteries are finally bending the price curve 

The Risky Business experts explored how storage is moving from pilot to portfolio asset, especially in oversupplied solar markets. Myers explained how Australia is offering a template, with subsidy support, falling Chinese battery costs, and frequent midday negative prices accelerating deployment. The near‑term effect for large buyers is more shape volatility — deeper midday troughs, sharper evening ramps — and growing opportunities to monetize flexibility. Myers noted that batteries are now “the big mover,” reshaping intraday spreads, even as long‑term adequacy questions linger. 

LNG flows: global ping‑pong 

Gas is definitively a global commodity, and the molecules travel in surprising ways. Bolyard described U.S. gas piped to Mexico, liquefied, shipped to Eastern Canada, regasified, then piped back into the U.S. Northeast, as “supply ping‑pong,” enabled by new infrastructure and price signals. Meanwhile, Europe and Asia continue to compete cargo‑by‑cargo.  

Financially, Wilcox pointed to the JKM–TTF spread as the key Asia–Europe fulcrum, while in Texas, the Henry Hub’s investor base globalizes. In Europe, Sanjin Lucic summarized the near‑term setup as a triangle of LNG availability, weather, and storage: when they diverge, volatility bounces back quickly. 

Asia is trying to build a shared grid 

Wilcox described how integration is edging from concept to practice. This can be seen in the LTMS Power Integration Project (LTMS‑PIP), a cross‑border trading pilot that uses existing interconnectors to wheel Lao hydropower through Thailand and Malaysia into Singapore. The link is small, transmitting mere hundreds of megawatts, but it is strategically important — with Wilcox describing it as a “preface” to a regional grid. The strategy is ambitious and politically complex, but efficiency gains will increasingly come from cross‑border balancing, not just domestic buildouts. 

The biggest risks are still underpriced 

The Risky Business panel highlighted three key gaps in pricing risk. First, they noted, demand risk from AI and data centers remains under‑reflected in forward curves, particularly in Australia and parts of Asia. Second, non‑commodity cost inflation looms: Wilcox flagged grid and interconnection investments that will surface in tariffs or taxes, which are costs that are not reflected today. Third, infrastructure fragility persists: Lucic warned that in Europe, for example, an LNG logistics hiccup in the depths of winter could be a “skyrocket” scenario, given tight storage and limited swing supply. 

And yep … weather still owns the market 

Weather is still the market’s chief risk manager, as well as its saboteur. In the U.S., January’s cold snap spiked spot prices and immediately pulled down LNG feedgas; when domestic prices eased, exports rebounded hour‑by‑hour. Europe saw the opposite: a milder forecast cut prices sharply in a single morning. Lucic’s summary applies broadly: “Europe until it isn’t” — and when conditions turn, European energy markets reprice fast. The same pattern increasingly holds in globally linked gas and power markets. “It’s weather that drives the short‑term demand and then storage tells us how nervous the market really is,” Lucic concluded. 

The bottom line 

In their final analysis, the panel agreed that 2026 energy markets are faster, tighter, and more globally wired than ever. In the words of Bolyard: “There will be opportunities no matter what happens, but there’s going to be a lot of risk involved with volatility.” 

AI demand is rising, coal is lingering, batteries are reshaping intraday prices, and LNG arbitrage is calling the marginal tune — all under the constant veto power of weather. For procurement teams, the edge is preparation: rebased load forecasts, contracts that buy flexibility, vigilance on non‑commodity costs, and playbooks for storage and LNG shocks.  

In a market that reprices fast, readiness is alpha. 

Want the full conversation? 

This summary captures the key themes – but the discussion goes deeper. 

In the full Risky Business global roundtable, Trio’s risk leaders and international market experts explore where pricing models may be wrong, which risks remain underappreciated, and how interconnected markets are reshaping procurement strategy in real time. 

If you’re navigating global exposure or building a 2026 risk playbook, the full conversation offers valuable context beyond the headlines.